The same evidence, framed for your decision.
A bank needs a probability of default, an insurer a return period, a supervisor a consistent baseline. ecosphere starts every one of them from the same versioned hazard history, projections and transition scenarios for 54 African countries, then answers the question your institution actually has to put to its committee.
Climate risk in the numbers your credit committee already uses.
For credit risk, enterprise risk and climate teams at commercial and retail banks who must show how physical and transition risk move probability of default, expected credit loss and capital.
Questions we answer
- Which counterparties see the largest PD uplift under a drought like the worst on record, combined with a delayed transition?
- How much would expected credit loss rise by 2030, and with what range?
- What is the CET1 impact of an official stress run, and can we trace each figure back to the hazard behind it?
- How does the answer change between Net Zero 2050, Delayed Transition, Current Policies and NDCs?
Products that matter
exploratory run
| Counterparty | PD Δ | ECL Δ | Severity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maize miller, Free State | +71 bps | 3.8 | Stressed |
| Cement plant, Eastern Cape | +46 bps | 2.2 | At risk |
| Logistics hub, Gauteng | +18 bps | 0.9 | At risk |
| Office portfolio, Western Cape | +6 bps | 0.2 | Low |
Return periods and hazard curves for every insured site.
For underwriting, pricing, accumulation and catastrophe teams who need site-level hazard intensity, not a country average, across water, fire, geotechnical and heat perils.
Questions we answer
- What flood depth should we expect at this address at 1-in-100 years, and how wide is the range?
- Which sites in the portfolio sit on high landslide susceptibility or see high seismic peak ground acceleration at 1-in-475 years?
- Which events drive the hazard at a site, once the curve is disaggregated?
- How do rainfall return periods shift by mid-century under each SSP pathway?
Products that matter
today
Physical and transition exposure, side by side, never blended.
For portfolio managers, investment risk and stewardship teams comparing holdings across African markets, and explaining to investment committees why a name moved.
Questions we answer
- Which holdings are exposed to physical hazard, which to transition cost, and which to both?
- How does carbon cost and revenue impact per holding differ between NGFS scenarios?
- Where do the sites behind a listed company actually sit, and what hazards do they face in 2050?
- How would the picture look under a lower or higher SSP pathway, compared side by side?
Products that matter
per-holding view
Screen projects against hazard to 2090, not just to the end of the loan.
For development finance institutions, multilateral lenders and blended-finance teams appraising long-lived projects and sovereign programmes, where the asset outlives the scenario most tools stop at.
Questions we answer
- How does the hazard profile of a project site change from today to 2030, 2050 and 2090?
- Which regions of a country carry the most drought, extreme rain or heat-stress exposure for a programme?
- What does the terrain say about flood and landslide at a proposed site before anyone visits it?
- Can the appraisal show its sources, versions and ranges to a board or co-financier?
Products that matter
other pathways alongside
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 | 2090 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drought, SPI-12 | At risk | At risk | Stressed | Stressed |
| Extreme rain | Low | Low | At risk | At risk |
| Heat stress, WBGT | At risk | At risk | Stressed | Stranded |
| Landslide | Low | Low | Low | At risk |
Site-level hazard for your facilities and suppliers, ready for disclosure.
For sustainability, treasury and operations teams who must describe climate risk to their own sites and supply chains in a climate disclosure, and back each statement with a source.
Questions we answer
- Which of our plants, warehouses and key suppliers face flood, heat, fire or landslide hazard today?
- How do those hazards change at 2030, 2050 and 2090 under different SSP pathways?
- What would carbon cost do to revenue under each NGFS scenario?
- Can we hand the underlying figures to auditors as data files with their provenance attached?
Products that matter
provenance attached
| Site | Flood 1:100 | Heat stress | Landslide |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bottling plant, Lagos | 0.6 m | Stressed | Low |
| Distribution centre, Nairobi | 0.1 m | At risk | Low |
| Packaging mill, Kumasi | 0.3 m | At risk | At risk |
| Cold store, Durban | 0.8 m | Low | At risk |
One consistent hazard baseline for a system-wide exercise.
For supervisors, financial-stability and climate units who design climate stress tests and need every participating institution to start from the same hazard history, the same scenarios and the same data version.
Questions we answer
- Which physical shocks and transition scenarios should define this year’s exercise, and how severe is each relative to the 1991–2020 baseline?
- Which regions and sectors concentrate the system’s exposure?
- Which runs are official and which exploratory, and which data version did each use?
- Can every published figure be traced from capital impact back to the hazard that caused it?
Products that matter
for every participant
| Run | Shock + scenario | Status |
|---|---|---|
| R-014 | Drought + Delayed Transition | official |
| R-015 | Extreme rain, 1-in-100 flood + Net Zero 2050 | official |
| R-016 | Heatwave like a record year + Current Policies | exploratory |
Drought, ENSO and livestock heat, mapped against the seasonal book.
For agricultural banks, input financiers, microfinance lenders and agri-insurers whose borrowers’ ability to repay rises and falls with the rains.
Questions we answer
- How often has each region seen severe drought on the SPI since 1991, and how does this season compare?
- Which ENSO phase are we in, and what has that phase meant for rainfall in our lending regions?
- Where does livestock heat stress (THI) put herds and dairy borrowers at risk?
- What happens to PD and expected credit loss in the agricultural book if a drought like the worst on record repeats?
Products that matter
baseline 1991–2020
Flood depth on bare-earth terrain, along every kilometre of a route.
For owners, operators and lenders of roads, rail, power lines, water systems and ports, whose assets are long, low-lying and exposed to hazards a single point cannot describe.
Questions we answer
- Where along a corridor does 2D flood modelling on a bare-earth terrain model put water over the asset at 1-in-100 years?
- Which stretches sit downstream of a dam and are exposed to a release surge?
- What seismic peak ground acceleration at 1-in-475 years and what landslide susceptibility apply to each segment?
- When a new, sharper terrain model is published, which flood and landslide results change?
Products that matter
bare-earth DTM
Bring a sample portfolio. Leave with a stress result.
In a working session we run a sample of your counterparties through a physical shock and a transition scenario, and walk you through every step of the chain from hazard to capital.