Physical risk
The observed record that anchors every projection: ERA5, 1991–2025, for every country, region and municipality.
See hazard history
Climate projections
The future as a range you can plan against, not a single line.
CMIP6 SSP scenarios at near-term, mid-century and end-century horizons, summarised across climate models as a low, central and high value, for the same places and hazards as the observed record.
Change in annual maximum temperature, Kano (admin-1)
+3.9 °C · SSP5-8.5, 2090
p10–p90
+2.6 to +5.1 °C
+2.6 to +5.1 °C
srcCMIP6 ensemble · p10/p50/p90Illustrative
Projections at a glance
- Pathways
- 5SSP emissions pathways from CMIP6
- Horizons
- 3Future horizons: near-term, mid-century, end-century
- Statistics
- p10·p50·p90Low, central and high across the model ensemble
- Countries
- 54African countries, on the same places as the observed record
Pathways and horizons
Choose a pathway and a horizon. Compare them side by side.
Shared Socioeconomic Pathways describe how emissions could unfold, from rapid cuts to continued growth. Each is published at three horizons, each horizon a twenty-year window centred on the year you plan for.
| Pathway | Storyline |
|---|---|
| SSP1-1.9 | Very low emissions, rapid decarbonisation |
| SSP1-2.6 | Low emissions, sustainable development |
| SSP2-4.5 | Intermediate emissions, middle of the road |
| SSP3-7.0 | High emissions, regional rivalry |
| SSP5-8.5 | Very high emissions, fossil-fuelled growth |
Three horizons, four columns
- Today
- observed, ERA5 1991–2025
- Near-term · 2030
- window 2021–2040
- Mid-century · 2050
- window 2041–2060
- End-century · 2090
- window 2081–2100
Projected values are expressed as a change from the observed baseline, so the today column and the future columns can be read in one row without switching units or sources.
Uncertainty, shown
Climate models disagree. The range is part of the answer.
A single projected line suggests a precision nobody has. Every projection is published as the 10th, 50th and 90th percentile across the model ensemble, and drawn as a band.
- The central value (p50) is what the risk fingerprint shows by default.
- The low and high values (p10, p90) travel with it, in the console, the Parquet files and the API.
- Scenarios are drawn on the same axes, so the difference between pathways is visible at a glance.
- The gap between pathways widens after mid-century: decisions with long tenors should look at both.
Annual maximum temperature change, Kano, observed and projected
+2.2 to +3.9 °C by 2090
p50, SSP2-4.5 → SSP5-8.5
vs 1991–2020
vs 1991–2020
srcERA5 · CMIP6Illustrative
The risk fingerprint
Today, 2030, 2050 and 2090, in one row per hazard.
Every counterparty dossier in the site atlas carries a risk fingerprint. Its future columns come from these projections, under the pathway you choose, with the class written out so severity never depends on colour.
| Hazard | Today | 2030 | 2050 | 2090 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heatwave days | Moderate 31 d | Moderate 38 d | High 52 d | Very high 74 d |
| Drought, SPI-12 | Moderate −1.2 | Moderate −1.3 | High −1.6 | High −1.8 |
| Extreme rain days | Low 4 d | Low 4 d | Moderate 6 d | Moderate 7 d |
| WBGT heat stress | High 96 d | High 108 d | Very high 131 d | Very high 162 d |
| Flood depth, 1-in-100 | Low 0.2 m | Low 0.2 m | Low 0.3 m | Moderate 0.4 m |
todayERA5futureCMIP6 · SSP2-4.5 · p50Illustrative
What you can do with it
Questions for loans, policies and assets that outlast today’s climate.
Projections matter wherever a tenor, a design life or a policy horizon reaches past the next few years.
Which counterparties move up a heat class by 2050 under SSP2-4.5?
Compare the today and 2050 columns of the fingerprint across the whole book.
fingerprint · 2050 · SSP2-4.5How different does a 20-year infrastructure loan look under SSP5-8.5 than under SSP1-2.6?
Set the pathways side by side at 2050 and read both the central values and the ranges.
scenario comparison · p10–p90Is the drought risk in our agricultural regions expected to grow or stay flat?
Follow SPI-12 from the observed record through the three horizons, region by region.
SPI-12 · admin-1 · 2030–2090What is the worst plausible case we should disclose, not just the central one?
Use the p90 value for the pathway your disclosure framework asks for, with its source on every figure.
p90 · provenance · disclosure
See it on your own book
Bring a sample portfolio. Leave with a stress result.
In a working session we run a sample of your counterparties through a physical shock and a transition scenario, and walk you through every step of the chain from hazard to capital.