Water
Rainfall return periods, flood depth at 1-in-100 years, 2D flood modelling on bare-earth terrain and dam-release surge downstream of reservoirs.
return periods1:100 depthdam release
Water hazards
Hazard products
How deep, how often, how likely: for each site you finance or insure.
Four hazard families, water, fire, geotechnical and extreme temperatures, delivered as hazard curves and return periods at the coordinates of every site, with the drivers behind each number broken out.
Flood depth at 1-in-100 years
1.1 m · central
range 0.8–1.4 m
class: high
class: high
src2D flood · DTM · FABDEMIllustrative
Four hazard families
One catalogue of hazards, read the same way at every site.
Each hazard is published as a value, a class and a source. Classes follow published bands rather than our own scale, so a “high” flood or landslide class means the same thing to your engineers, your underwriters and your regulator.
Fire
A fire risk score for each site and month, showing where the fire season sits and how often it reaches the high classes.
fire risk scoremonthly
Fire hazard
Geotechnical
Landslide susceptibility on terrain, and seismic peak ground acceleration with a 1-in-475 year return period, the design level used in building codes.
landslidePGA 1:475
Geotechnical hazards
Extreme temperatures
Heat percentiles for daily maximum temperature and comfort indices, humidex among them, for the sites where people work and live.
p90 · p95 · p99humidex
Temperature hazards
01 · Water
Flood modelled on the ground, not on the rooftops.
- Rainfall return periods1:2 to 1:1000
How much rain falls in the storm you should expect once in 10, 100 or 1,000 years at the site.
- Flood depth, 1-in-100 yearsmetres
Water depth at the site in the 1-in-100 year event, with a range and a published class.
- 2D flood modelling on terrainbare-earth DTM
Water routed across a bare-earth terrain model. Runs start automatically when a new DTM is published for the area.
- Dam-release surgedownstream
The surge reaching sites downstream when a reservoir releases water in an extreme inflow.
Terrain follows a fixed priority: LiDAR, then our own pipeline, then FABDEM, then Copernicus DSM. About terrain and the site atlas.
24-hour rainfall by return period, Kisumu
142 mm · 1-in-100
range 118–171 mm
class: high
class: high
| Return period | Central | Range | Class |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-in-10 years | 88 mm | 79–98 | Low |
| 1-in-25 years | 107 mm | 94–121 | Moderate |
| 1-in-50 years | 124 mm | 106–144 | Moderate |
| 1-in-100 years | 142 mm | 118–171 | High |
| 1-in-1000 years | 205 mm | 158–262 | High |
srcERA5 · return periodsIllustrative
02 · Fire
When the fire season arrives, and how severe it gets.
- Fire risk score0–100
A single score per site and month, with the class it falls in, so fire exposure can be compared across a whole portfolio.
- Season profile12 months
Which months reach the high classes, so plantation, forestry and estate exposures can be timed against the season.
The fire season is also one of the physical shocks in stress testing.
Fire risk score by month, timber estate, Mpumalanga
78 · August, high
5 months ≥ 60
class: high
class: high
srcfire risk score · ERA5Illustrative
03 · Geotechnical
Slopes that move and ground that shakes.
- Landslide susceptibility5 classes
Computed on bare-earth terrain, in classes that follow published bands. Landslide runs start when a new DTM is published.
- Seismic peak ground acceleration1-in-475 years
PGA in g at the 1-in-475 year return period, the same level structural design codes use, along the Rift and the Maghreb.
Geotechnical hazard, five sites in one portfolio
0.24 g · highest PGA
1-in-475 years
published bands
published bands
| Site | Landslide | PGA (g) | Seismic class |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tea factory, Kericho | High | 0.14 | Moderate |
| Hydro intake, Rwenzori | Very high | 0.24 | High |
| Warehouse, Addis Ababa | Low | 0.18 | Moderate |
| Hotel, Agadir | Low | 0.21 | High |
| Data centre, Lagos | Low | 0.03 | Low |
srcDTM · PGA 1:475Illustrative
04 · Extreme temperatures
The hottest days at a site, and how they feel.
- Heat percentilesp50 · p90 · p95 · p99
The distribution of daily maximum temperature, so cooling loads, equipment limits and crop thresholds can be read directly.
- Comfort and humidexdiscomfort days
Temperature and humidity combined into how heat feels, counting the days of heat discomfort that drive productivity and energy demand.
Carried forward to 2030, 2050 and 2090 under SSP scenarios in climate projections.
Daily maximum temperature percentiles, packhouse, Upington
41.5 °C · p99 in 2050
today → 2050
SSP2-4.5 · p50
SSP2-4.5 · p50
srcERA5 · CMIP6Illustrative
Hazard curves and disaggregation
A full curve per site, and the reasons behind it.
A single 1-in-100 number hides most of what an underwriter or engineer needs. Every site carries the whole curve from frequent to rare events, and a disaggregation that shows which drivers make up the hazard.
Hazard curve
Intensity against return period, from 1-in-2 to 1-in-1000 years, with a range at each point. Read off the level that matches your own risk appetite rather than ours.
Disaggregation
The share of the hazard coming from each source: river or surface water, a nearby dam, a particular fault, so mitigation can target the cause.
Published classes
Every value is assigned a class from published bands. Classes are shown in words as well as colour, in the console, files and API.
| Driver | Share of depth | Depth contribution | What it suggests |
|---|---|---|---|
| River overflow | 58% | 0.64 m | Raised floor levels and flood barriers on the river side |
| Surface water (pluvial) | 27% | 0.30 m | On-site drainage and storage capacity |
| Dam-release surge | 15% | 0.16 m | Engagement with the upstream operator on release warnings |
What you can do with it
Questions underwriters, lenders and engineers ask.
Hazard products answer the site-level questions: is this place exposed, to what, and how badly in a rare but plausible event.
Which insured sites would sit under more than half a metre of water in a 1-in-100 year flood?
Filter the portfolio on flood depth and class, and export the list with ranges.
flood depth · 1:100 · classIs a new project site downstream of a dam that could surge?
Check dam-release surge and the disaggregation before credit approval, not after construction.
dam release · disaggregationWhat return period does our reinsurance attachment correspond to at each location?
Read the full hazard curve per site and compare it with your own attachment point.
hazard curve · per siteWhich of our assets sit on slopes in a high landslide class or in high seismic zones?
Combine landslide susceptibility and PGA at 1-in-475 years in one table for engineering review.
landslide · PGA 1:475How many months a year are our forestry exposures in high fire risk?
Read the monthly fire risk profile per estate and see how many months reach the high class.
fire risk score · monthlyHow hot does it get at our cold-chain sites on the hottest one per cent of days?
Use the p99 daily maximum and humidex at each site to check equipment and cooling limits.
p99 · humidex
See it on your own book
Bring a sample portfolio. Leave with a stress result.
In a working session we run a sample of your counterparties through a physical shock and a transition scenario, and walk you through every step of the chain from hazard to capital.